INDIA- US RELATION

2020 US Elections

Following the eventful US Presidential elections in November 2020, Joseph Biden, the Democratic Party nominee Joseph Biden has become the new President of America with effect from 20 January 2021.

It was one of the most contested elections in US history, where Republican nominee and incumbent President Donald Trump refused to concede defeat to his democratic rival, in spite of transparent election process. Initially, he challenged the election results in different provincial courts but got no relief. Finally, when the US Congress was certifying the victory of Biden on 6 January 2021, he held a massive rally of his supporters in Washington and exhorted them to move to Capitol Hill (The seat of US Congress) to overturn the ongoing certifying process in the joint meeting of the two Houses on the same day. Thousands of Trump supporters and Republican Party members marched to the Capitol Hill and stormed the ongoing Congress meeting. The mob became violent and five people were killed by security forces. The proceedings of the Congress were partly suspended and resumed when the mob violence was controlled. Finally, the Congress certified the victory of Biden in the elections. But this violent event has left a scar on the US democracy. Now impeachment proceedings have been initiated against Trump in the US Congress for inciting the insurrection against the American State. Whatever may be the outcome of this impeachment, America will have to face this internal challenge to her democratic order. This would also undermine the US moral authority as a global power. China, the main American rival at the global stage, has already taken a dig at this event by comparing the Capitol Hill incident with a similar incident in June 2019 at the Hong Kong legislature building, where democratic supporters stormed the China-controlled Legislature. The US supported the cause of democratic protesters in Hong Kong, whereas China pitched for strong action against them. China was hinting at the contradictory US behaviour in two incidents.

Indo-American Relations: A Background

India and America had adversarial relations during the cold war era due to India’s policy of NAM and perceived inclination towards America’s cold war opponent Soviet Union. But after the disintegration of the Soviet Union and the rise of China in the post cold war era, America and India gradually developed close strategic ties in the last three decades. Some of the milestones of this ever-strengthening strategic partnership are—

(A) Strategic Partnership: 

Strategic partnership started by removing the bottleneck in the cooperation and creating the new platforms for cooperation: US lifted sanctions on India in 2001, which were imposed in the wake of India conducting her second nuclear experiment in 1998; the US extended political support during the Kargil war; both signed historic Civil Nuclear Cooperation Agreement in 2008; the US and India signed joint vision statement on the Indo-Pacific; India joined the QUAD revived by Trump in 2017; India and US launched 2+2 negotiations, involving the Defence and Foreign Ministers of the two countries in 2018; US supported India on terrorism including Balakot strike in 2019, and America supported India on the military stand-off with China at the LAC in 2020. Both countries have maintained a regular exchange of visits at the highest level. Since American President Bill Clinton’s visit in 2000, all American Presidents have visited India, the last being Donald Trump’s visit to India in February 2020. America wants a larger role for India in its Indo-Pacific strategy. Similarly, the US has consistently supported India’s claim for permanent membership of the UN Security Council. The US support has been instrumental for India to get the membership of various non-proliferation regimes like Missile Technology Control Regime, Wassenaar Arrangement, and Australia Group. America also supports India’s membership in the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) but due to Chinese opposition, India could not get this membership. The above facts well explain India’s robust strategic partnership with America in the last three decades.

(B) Defence Cooperation :

Defence cooperation is another area where both countries have made great strides in this period. They signed India-US Defence Cooperation Agreement in 2005 for 10 years which was further extended for another 10 years in 2015 during Obama’s India visit. The defence cooperation between the two ranges from the supply of advanced weapon systems to joint exercises and Logistic support. Both have started the Malabar joint naval exercise on annual basis since 2006. Later, Japan and Australia also joined these exercises in 2017 and 2020 respectively as both are also members of the QUAD, which is a strategic coalition of four countries. 

The Defence Trade and Technology Initiative (DTTI), launched in 2012 is another important mechanism to expanding defence cooperation in new fields like joint research and development and co-development and co-production of defence equipment and technologies. Under this mechanism, both have planned co-development and production of the fifth-generation fighter aircraft in India.

The US declared India as a ‘Major Defence Partner in 2016, which paved the way for the supply of advanced arms from the US. India has signed a defence purchase deal for many advanced weapons including Chinook and Apache helicopters. After Russia, the US is emerging as the leading defence supplier for India.

Four Foundational Agreements :

In order to ensure interoperationality between the two defence forces, India and the US have signed the four foundational agreements, which are mentioned below :

1. General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA) signed in 2002.

2. Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA) signed in 2016.

3. Communications Compatibility and (COMCASA) signed in 2018.

4. Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA). BECA is the last of the four foundational agreements and was signed in October 2020.

BECA would involve an exchange of geospatial information sharing between India and the US. It would enable Indian forces to locate in a pinpointed manner the radars and other military establishments of the enemy for an accurate operation against them. In this way it would help Indian Drones, missiles and aircraft to accurately hit the enemy’s targets. Thus, it would enhance the capability of Indian forces. 

The above four foundational agreements are signed by the US with its strategic partners. They are intended to facilitate the inter-operability of the defence forces of the two countries. This would lead to better cooperation and coordination between the two defence forces on the ground. These foundational agreement also demonstrate how closer are defence ties between the US and India.

(C) Economic Partnership :

During the last three decades, the economic partnership including trade and investment has also witnessed new height. With the liberalization of the Indian economy in 1991 and closer integration of Indian economy with global economy, the US business has viewed India as a new huge market for trade and investment. With a bilateral trade volume of $88 billion (2019-20), the US is the largest trading partner of India since 2018, and in 2020-21 china re-become largest trading partner. China was the largest trading partner of India during 2013-18 and before that, the UAE used to be the largest trading partner of India. 

The trade relations between the two countries faced some hurdle during Trump regime. The US administration has been complaining of lack of access to US agricultural products and medical instruments in India. Trump imposed a higher tariff on Indian Steel and aluminium in 2018. In March 2019, the US also withdrew the concessional trade facility, which was granted to India in 1974 as a developing country under the Generalized System of Preference. This caused trade tensions between the two nations. Also, India’s decision of the data localization policy for e-commerce companies was not appreciated by the US. Under this policy, the E-commerce Companies like VISA, Amazon etc. were required to keep Indian customers data in India to avoid its misuse. But the US views it as a new restriction on the operation of its e-commerce companies in India. India too retaliated by imposing new tariff on US imports of certain agricultural products like almond and medical instruments in the 2020-21 Budget. 

During the time of Trump’s visit to India in February 2020, both sides were involved in the trade negotiations to sign a small trade deal, but that could not be signed at the last moment. Now it is expected that the new US administration would initiate trade negotiations with India to sign a trade deal and iron out the trade differences.

In brief, in the post-cold war era, India-US relations have vastly expanded in the strategic and defence field, but have faced some tensions in the economic field.

The New US Administration and Policy towards India

It was in this background that the new Democratic Party administration led by President Biden has assumed charge in America. The positive factor is that Biden and his democratic party have received massive support from the 40 lakh Indian-American community. Though, traditionally, the Indian-American Community has been the supporter of the Democratic party, Trump’s Visa policy caused further resentment among the Indian professionals working in the US. Also, Joseph Biden selected Indian descendent Kamala Harris as his Vice-Presidential nominee. These factors mobilized the massive support of the Indian community in favour of Biden, in spite of Howdy Modi and Namaste Trump programmes, which were inclined to generate support of the Indian community in favour of Republican Trump. The Biden administration recognizes the support of the Indian-American Community as many members of Indian Diaspora have been appointed in important positions under the new US administration.

Strong Foundations of Indo-US Partnership :

This question is making round in diplomatic circles as to whether Biden will change her foreign policy with India or not. 

The simple answer to this question is that there is no possibility of any fundamental change in US policy towards India during the Biden regime due to two fundamental factors :

(1) The present structure of the Indo-US strategic partnership is routed in their shared vision about the peace, stability and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific region and the threat arising from the ever assertive China. India and the US both want a rule-based, transparent, free and open order in the Indo-pacific. Their common commitment to democracy, human rights and rule of law provide a solid foundation to this vision. As long as they share this vision, Indo-US strategic partnership would go on.

(2) The strong India-US partnership has bipartisan support in both India and the US. It means both the main political parties of America: Republican Party and Democratic Party support this partnership. In the last two decades, both political parties have ruled in the US and promoted this partnership. If Republican Party administrations led by Bush and Donald Trump strengthened this partnership the Democratic Party administrations led by Clinton and Obama expanded it. Similarly, in India, both main ruling alliances (NDA and UPA) support strong ties between the two countries. If the historic Indo-US Nuclear Deal was signed during the UPA regime led by Manmohan Singh, the NDA regime under Modi took it to new heights in the last five years. So the close Indo-US ties are not likely to face any uncertain political future both in India as well as the US.

Change in Orientation :

Yet there are likely to be some changes in the orientation and focus of the US policy towards India due to party ideology and the impact of the personality of President occupying the office. Trump was highly obsessed with his idea of ‘America First’ and focused on promoting America’s global economic and trade interests. The trade war between China and America’s differences with India and European countries on economic issues are the outcome of this policy. On the other hand, the Democratic Party stead-fastly stands for the promotion of human rights and democracy. This would be reflected in the American policy towards India also. Last, but not least, unlike Trump, Joseph Biden has long experience in diplomacy and public service. He was the Vice-President during the Obama administration. This would be reflected in his more mature and stable diplomatic moves, unlike Trump who was less predictable and stable in his diplomacy.