QUAD{Quadrilateral Security Dialogue}

QUAD

 EXPLAINING CHINA AGGRESSIVE BEHAVIOUR

Amidst the ongoing military stand-off between China and India along the LAC for the last eight-month, it seems desirable to understand China’s perception of India and its global strategy, which shapes China’s foreign policy. After all, why is China following aggressive and expansionist policy against India? China conducts her foreign relations with India, in view of her own worldview and grand strategy high-lighted above. Hence, for better understanding, the Indo-China relations should be viewed through the prism of China’s grand strategy of China Dream, which is aimed at making China a global power by the year 2049 when China completes 100 years of Communist Revolution. China’s worldview is shaped by her desire to revive the golden age of the Imperial era, to restore the territories lost during the colonial exploitation of China in the 19th century. Both India and China in the present form came into the international arena at the same time in 1947 and 1949 respectively. Both are old civilizations, large nations, neighbors, and emerging powers. Geography and geopolitics dictate that they cannot avoid interacting with each other. China finds India as an obstacle in her march to global power status. The three major dimensions of their interaction are discussed below :

A. Territorial Dispute

As per the Chinese worldview shaped by her imagination of the Imperial era and ‘Century of Humiliation’,

Territorial integrity is the historical mission of China. It is a residual task left by history that has to be completed sooner or later. That is why China has had territorial disputes with all 14 countries with which it shares a border. China’s Communist regime would like to restore all territories to China which were part of China during the height of Imperial power.

Regarding territorial disputes with India, both countries share a 3488 km-long border. It can be broadly divided into three parts: Eastern Sector from Sikkim to Arunachal Pradesh; Middle Sector from Himachal Pradesh to Uttarakhand; and the Western Sector running across the Ladakh region of India. Soon after the establishment of Communist rule in 1949, Mao Zedong floated the idea of ‘Palm and five Fingers’, which means Tibet is the right-hand palm of China, which has five fingers as its parts: Ladakh, Nepal, Sikkim, Bhutan, and Arunachal Pradesh. The Palm and its finger are to be secured by China. China has tried to implement this scheme.

 Now, China claims 37000 sq. km Aksai Chin (under Chinese Occupation since 1962) area in Ladakh, and the entire Arunachal Pradesh in the East as part of Southern Tibet. In addition, China has taken 5000 sq km area from the POK region by Pakistan in 1963. Also, China does not recognize the McMahon line which decides the boundary between the two countries on the ground that this line was imposed on China by colonial power Britain. India has been contesting Chinese claims for the last seven decades. The following dimensions of the Indo-China territorial dispute would throw light on the fact as how China views her territorial claims :

The first unique dimension of a boundary dispute is that it has remained unresolved for the last seven decades in spite of the fact that both countries have been normalizing their relations for many decades and have launched many rounds of negotiations to solve it since 1988. Now China argues that both countries should place the boundary dispute on the backburner and normalize the relations in other fields. But India holds the opposite view saying that normalization of the situation at the boundary is the prior condition of developing relations in other fields. China’s intentions can be judged from the fact that China neither wants to resolve the boundary dispute nor is willing to leave its claims. 

Second, China’s claims on the territorial dispute are not fixed but dynamic and shifting. In the 1950s China was much concerned about the claim over Tibet, but when this matter was settled and India indirectly recognized Tibet as an autonomous part of China in 2003, China has started renewed claims about southern Tibet, that is Arunachal Pradesh.

Third, China does not mind breaking international norms or bilateral treaties or adopting aggressive means to realize its aim of territorial restoration. China’s territorial claims are based on historical imagination, which often goes against international law and global norms. China does not care for bilateral treaties if territorial claims are concerned. Also, China does not hesitate in adopting aggressive and threatening means to realize her territorial claims. 

China and India were on the way to normalization of relations, but China initiated a military stand-off in 2017 at the Dokalm, trijunction of Sikkim, Bhutan, and China. It took 73 days to resolve it. Amidst the ongoing informal summits (Wuhan, 2018 and Mahabalipuram, 2019), China initiated another military stand-off at the LAC in the Ladakh sector in May 2020, which continues even now. China has amassed troops across the border without any provocation from India. China did not honor the five bilateral agreements signed from 1993 to 2013 for maintaining peace and tranquility along the border. China is also not worried about the loss of trust between the two nations.

Fourth, China adopts secretive and dubious means as well as confusion to realize its territorial objectives. For many years now, China has used a flexible, expedient, and self-serving concept of the Line of Actual Control to gradually inch further up to its specious boundary claim lines. Maintaining a duplicitous position on the agreements reached in 1993 and 1996 to clarify and confirm the LAC, it has dragged its feet on the exchange of maps to identify differences, which is the first step in the delineation and demarcation of the LAC. Meanwhile, China has built vast modern infrastructure all along the LAC to facilitate its patrols and forward presence, but objects when India builds such infrastructure (Chinoy: 2020).

These facts underline China’s excessive realistic approach and obsession with territorial expansion. Can we expect any long-term relations with China in the absence of such trust? Trust is not the part of Chinese worldview on foreign affairs. In a nutshell, the boundary dispute will remain a bone of contention between the two nations in the future and China will not leave her goal of territorial expansion. India needs to devise its strategy accordingly.

B. Perception about Economic Partnership

Under the Chinese worldview, the fast economic development of China is another priority, a national mission, so much so that it compromised with her core ideology of socialism and opted for the path of capitalist development for faster growth. China succeeded in seeking the cooperation of the developed western countries in her economic growth as it is driven by foreign trade and investment.

 China and India too moved on the path of close economic engagement mainly trade and investment. In 2010, in spite of many strategic differences, China emerged as the largest trading partner of India. But, it led to a mounting trade deficit against India. For example in 2019, out of a total of $ 70 billion in bilateral trade, India suffered a trade deficit of $ 53 billion. India raised this issue with China, but she did not take any concrete measures to fix the problem. In the wake of the stand-off at the LAC since May 2020, India took some economic measures against China: banning the automatic route of approval for the investment from all countries sharing a land border with India, banning popular Chinese apps, and restriction on awarding the contract to Chinese companies. China protested against Indian measures and alleged that they are against the free trade norms of WTO. China also wanted to convince India to decouple economic relations from the border issue, so that China can reap the economic benefits while creating tensions at the border. India has reiterated that without peace and tranquility at the border, economic relations cannot be normalized. India has also unnerved China by announcing the Atmanirbhar Bharat program which aims at reducing dependence on China for the supply of manufactured goods and intermediaries. It should be noted that India is highly dependent on China for the supply of electronic components and pharma ingredients for drug production. Surprisingly China did not take any economic measures against India, only because economic engagement with India is more beneficial to China than India. It seems China is highly vulnerable to economic measures. Sutter (2016) has remarked that Chinese foreign policy places greater emphasis on seeking international economic exchanges beneficial to Chinese development. US-China trade war during Trump’s regime also demonstrated that China gives high priority to beneficial economic relations.

C. Strategic Competition or Rivalry?

China and India both are rising powers and have global ambitions. Both are old civilizations, large countries, and neighbors. The geography and geopolitics dictate that they cannot avoid interacting with each other. China finds India as a hurdle in the way of realizing her China Dream. The idea of the Chinese dream involves the elements of Chinese prosperity, collective effort, socialism, and national glory. Xi rekindled the historical humiliation of China under the colonial era and promised the glorious past of Imperial China in modern times. China's state and party leaders have promised the Chinese people the return to the grandeur of past dynasties. By doing so, Xi has attempted to tap into the historical consciousness of the Chinese nation (DW. com: 2018), India too has regional and global ambition and overlapping claims in the Indo-Pacific region, where China wants to make strategic inroads. Competition and rivalry are the logical outcomes of such overlapping claims.

Though China’s New Era strategy has global dimensions, yet its regional implementation drags India into conflict with China due to overlapping claims of influence in South Asia and the Indian Ocean. China’s way to global power passes through the Indian Ocean and South Asia. Under the BRI, China is implementing CPEC (China-Pakistan Economic Corridor) project with Pakistan, which links China’s Kashgar town in Xinjiang province with Gwadar port in Pakistan. The CPEC passes through POK, which is claimed by India. China and Pakistan have developed all-weather strategic nexus against India. Similarly, China is trying to build a network of ports and other connectivity as well as economic infrastructures in India’s neighboring littoral States like Myanmar (Kyaukphyu port), Bangladesh (Chittagong), Sri Lanka (Hambantota port), and the Maldives. China has signed an agreement with Nepal in October 2019 to construct TransHimalayan Multidimensional Connectivity Project to link Tibet with Nepal’s capital Kathmandu through a rail and road network. The project may be extended up to India’s border near Lumbini. It is a part of China’s BRI. Except for India and Bhutan, all neighbors of India have agreed to join China’s BRI. Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has emerged as the most crucial instrument in implementing China’s global strategy in South Asia. 

China’s BRI is nothing but the benign version of her earlier strategy of 'String of Pearls' to encircle India, which raised security concerns among Indian policy-makers. While the declared objective of Chinese strategy is to secure her energy supply and get refueling facilities many observers like Iskandar Rehman (2010) do not rule out the military use of these facilities for the Chinese navy in the future.

 The strategic rivalry between India and China is also heating up in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). The  Chinese navy is present in the Arabian Sea since 2007 in the name of providing maritime security. Chinese submarines were sighted in Colombo in 2014. China has also constructed its first overseas naval base in Djibouti overlooking the Arabian Sea. She may develop Pakistan’s Gwadar port in a naval facility in the future. In view of these facts, many observers have predicted the intensification of maritime rivalry between India and China in the Indo-Pacific region due to their overlapping interests and conflicting ambitions. China’s ‘Malacca paranoia’ is matched by India’s Hormuz dilemma. If China’s navy is going south to the Indian Ocean, India’s navy is going east to the Pacific Ocean. 

 In order to counter China, India has gone for strengthening its defense capabilities, regional cooperation, and global strategic partnership such as QUAD. The QUAD or Quadrilateral Security Dialogue is a four-member strategic group US, India, Japan, and Australia, which aims for a rule-based open and free order in the Indo-Pacific. With the involvement of global players, Indo-China strategic rivalry has assumed a global dimension also. The two rising great powers share a border and the relationship is volatile and potentially dangerous. India and China's relationship faces a number of challenges, including multiple border disputes that periodically flare up, division over the status of Tibet and the Dalai Lama, the strategic challenge to India posed by China's close relationship with Pakistan, the Chinese navy's greater presence in the Indian Ocean, and the two states' competition for natural resources. As the aspirations of the two rising Asian powers collide, the China-India rivalry is likely to shape twenty-first-century international politics in the region and far beyond.

Why QUAD could not Move Ahead for a Decade?

The idea of QUAD as a strategic consultation and cooperation forum among four countries was given by the then Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in 2007. But the idea remained in limbo for various reasons :

(A) Some of the countries like India and Australia were not much enthusiastic about the idea for different reasons. Australia enjoyed an economic partnership with China in which has a huge trade surplus with China. Moreover, it did not have any security threat from China. 

Similarly, India had also some hesitation in joining QUAD due to two reasons;

 First, India had normal ties with China and did not want to antagonize China by being a member of the QUAD, because China was opposed to this group. China considered QUAD as a strategy for containing China. 

Second, India followed the policy of ‘strategic autonomy’ which required a balanced relationship between major powers like the US, Russia, and China. India wanted to maintain the independence of its foreign policy and did not want to be projected as blind followers of the US.

(B) The US under Obama (2009–2017) followed a policy of soft balancing against China. He launched her policy called Asia Pivot’ to balance China in the Indo-Pacific region, but did not want to follow aggressive policies against China. Both enjoyed enhanced economic partnership also.

(C) Before 2013, China too followed a policy of some adjustment with others. It followed the policy of peaceful rise of China, which proclaimed that China rise is not a threat to any country. However, this policy was reversed by the present President Xi Jinping, who followed a more aggressive approach towards other nations under her China Dream, which wants to make China a global power by the year 2049. Xi Jinping followed aggressive policies in the South China Sea as well as against India (Doklam, 2017).

 Because of these reasons, QUAD could not take off till 2017. It was China which is more responsible for its revival in 2017 by Trump. China’s aggressive and expansionist approach brought four members together to revive QUAD in 2017.

Evolution of QUAD: Challenges and Opportunities

The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, popularly known as QUAD is perhaps the most significant global strategic forum of the 21st century. It is a forum of strategic consultation and cooperation among its four members. It consists of four members: the US, Japan, India, and Australia. It finds its origin in the background of China’s economic and military rise as well as its increasing assertiveness. But QUAD officially denies that it is aligned against China. Now QUAD aims to establish an ‘open and free Indo-Pacific, managed by a rule-based order. 

The QUAD has covered a long journey of 15 years to reach the present stage of development.

 Brief Profile of the QUAD Members

 The profile of the four QUAD members: America, India, Japan, and Australia, is mentioned below:

 America is both the largest global economy as well as preeminent Military power; 

Japan is the third-largest economy, but constrained to develop military power due to constitutional restriction imposed by allied powers after WWII; 

India is the fifth-largest economy with well developed maritime capability and air power; 

Australia is the 14th largest economy and has advanced naval forces. If all these four countries form a security alliance, China stands nowhere. This alliance can maintain strategic and military hegemony in the entire Indo-pacific including the South China Sea.

The Evolution of QUAD

The main landmarks in the evolution of QUAD are given below :

(1) It was first conceived by the then-Japanese PM Shinzo Abe in 2007, but it remained in limbo for a decade due to China’s reservation and hesitant attitude of countries including India which were on the way to develop close economic ties with China.

(2) But the last US President revived it in 2017 in view of China’s growing assertiveness in the region. India too now came forward this time to strengthen QUAD in view of a stand-off with China at DOKALM in 2017 and LAC in 2020.

(3) It started as a forum of consultation between the officials of the four countries. From 2017 to 2019, QUAD was limited only to consultation among Foreign Ministry Officials.

(4) In September 2020, the QUAD leaders met at the annual session of the UN General Assembly and decided to elevate its status further. Consequently, it was elevated to the level of consultation by Foreign Ministers of member countries. So far three Foreign Ministers’ Meetings have been held : 

The First Foreign Ministers’ Meeting was held in New York in September 2019.

 The Second Meeting was held in Tokyo on 6 October 2020. In spite of the Covid Pandemic, they decided to hold face-to-face meetings which highlight their concern. Besides strategic issues, the meeting was dominated by the issue of the Covid pandemic and its management. 

The Third Foreign Ministers’ Meeting was held on 18 February in virtual mode, which focused on the Covid pandemic and other strategic issues. It also discussed the issue of elevating QUAD to the summit level, as hinted earlier by the new US President Biden on 10 February 2021.

(5) The last milestone of the QUAD is its elevation to the Summit level forum. It means now QUAD members’ apex leaders will have regular meetings and consultations about the realization of the goals of the QUAD. The first summit was held on 12 March 2021. 

Now Biden Administration’s proposal to hold a Summit meeting (among top leadership) is the next and logical stage in the growth of QUAD. 

The First Summit, 2021

 The first-ever summit of the QUAD (officially Quadrilateral Dialogue) leaders on 12 March 2021 was held in virtual mode. It was hosted by US President Biden. It is an important milestone in its evolution as a strategic platform for the Indo-Pacific region.

 What is the Focus of the Summit? 

In the first summit, they discussed the regional and global issues of shared interest and exchanged views on practical areas of cooperation toward maintaining a free, open, and inclusive Indo-Pacific region. The Summit provided an opportunity to exchange views on contemporary challenges such as resilient supply chains, emerging and critical technologies, maritime security, and climate change. The following are the main highlights of the Summit :

(A) As expected it reiterated its avowed objective for establishing a rules-based order which ensures a free and open Indo-Pacific. This has two messages for China: First that China cannot impose restrictions on the freedom of navigation in the South China Sea and other international waters; and Second, that China’s claims on the SCS would respect international law specifically the UN Law of Sea Convention. Thus, it does not recognize China’s arbitrary claims on historical grounds. Since the message is collective, it would have some effect on China.

(B) The leaders have operationalized cooperation in three areas :

First, the issue of management of Covid dominated the discussion. They decided to set a mechanism called Vaccine Partnership to address the challenge of the supply of Covid vaccine in a fair and effective manner.

Second, the QUAD leaders decided to set up two working groups to expedite the cooperation in the respective areas: The Working Group on climate change; 

and another Working Group on emerging and critical technologies.

 After the meeting, the QUAD leaders also hinted about the future expansion of this forum. The new likely members are; Vietnam, SouthKorea, New Zealand from East Asia, and France, and Britain from Europe.

Implications of QUAD for China

China is opposed to the QUAD as it considers this forum a tool of the US to contain China. China maintains that the cooperation among the four members should not impact the third country. China wants that her territorial sovereignty and interests should be respected. China says that QUAD may lead to a new cold war. Earlier, Russia, siding with China, has also objected to the QUAD. If QUAD is likely to impact China in the following manner :

(1) QUAD wants an open and free Indo-Pacific Ocean, which spans from the Western Pacific to the African Coast of the Indian Ocean. It will have the capability to enforce sea denial to China in the Indo-Pacific Region, including Malacca, Gwadar, and the South China Sea if China continues with her aggressive behavior. Thus China would face potential maritime security threats in the region.

(2) China’s economic growth depends upon its trade and regular supply of energy resources from middle-east through the Indo-Pacific region. In case of confrontation, QUAD would have the potential to disrupt this supply, undermining China’s economic growth.

(3) The strategic cooperation under the QUAD will also jeopardize the Maritime route of China’s BRI and CPEC. China wants to develop a series of ports and other infrastructure in the Indian Ocean under the BRI project.

Thus, QUAD has the potential to cause long-term strategic damage to China. But Chinese President is shortsighted as he is adopting aggressive policies everywhere: LAC with India in Ladakh and Sikkim, Hong Kong, Taiwan, South China Sea. China’s policies have strengthened the development of QUAD. However, QUAD leaders consistently deny that it is directed against any country including China.

 Future Challenges of QUAD

Though QUAD may appear to forge ahead in the future, it also faces some impediments:

(1) So far QUAD is just a forum of strategic discussion and cooperation. It was proposed in 2007 but remained in limbo for a decade due to the different priorities of its members. QUAD should be thankful for Chinese President Xi Jinping’s aggressive, arrogant and shortsighted policies which facilitated its revival now.

(2) During the last decade, QUAD members have tried to develop their own economic partnership with China. While Australia was enjoying the Chinese markets for its products, Chinese students, and tourists, India was trying to balance its relationship with China, the US, and Russia. Japan also has extensive trade and investment ties with China. The US has been opposing China in the Indo-Pacific strategically, but economically,

China remained its largest trading partner. It was during the Trump regime that open confrontation between the two became an enduring phenomenon.

(3) The four members of QUAD are opposed to China, but in that opposition, they have different strategic agendas. America would like to challenge China to maintain its global superpower position, but India would like to reduce Chinese influence in South Asia and the Indian Ocean. Japan is more concerned with the East China Sea, but Australia would closely follow the US strategic lead.

(4) The operational strategic mechanism of QUAD is yet to take a concrete shape. When China is threatening the region, mere messaging would be like beating around the bush, which China would not care for. Rather China would treat it as a weakness. Hence there is an urgent need to set up a strategic mechanism that monitors Chinese threats on a real-time basis and coordinates the response of the partners to face any misadventure by China.

(5) The QUAD has also ignored the highly vulnerable points of China: to put in place an alternative mechanism to China-centered supply chains in the region, and second an alternative forum for investment to counter China’s BRI, which has spread strong strategic networks in the entire Indo-Pacific from East to West and North to South. 

The impediments on the way to QUAD may limit its effectiveness in the long run. The members need a broader strategic understanding beyond the threat posed by China for QUAD’s long-term sustainability.

RUSSIANS  INTEREST IN QUAD

India, America, Japan, and Australia together formed the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD) Group and formalized this group. Although this group existed since 2007, at that time it was considered an informal group. By the way, the world sees the Quad as a group against China. But now Russia is a bit uncomfortable with India’s entry into this group. Publicly, Russia has never said anything about it, but experts believe that Russia has registered its objection to India in clear and strong words. The annual conference between Russia and India has been taking place continuously for the last 20 years. But this time this conference is not happening. India and Russia have cited the Corona epidemic as the reason for the absence of this conference. But the opposition is giving reasons to the Quad Group behind this.

What is Russia’s Problem with QUAD?

On December 8, 2020, while addressing the government think tank Russian International Affairs Council in a video conferencing, the Russian foreign minister said that Western countries are trying to undermine their close relations with India. His reference was towards the Quad Group itself. After that, Russia’s Ambassador to India, Nicole Kudashev, also recently offered a Eurasian partnership in the Indian Ocean. Therefore, it is important to understand what can Russia do for this group Two main reasons why Russia is uncomfortable with the Quad. The first is that according to Russia it is a bit immoral for India to join this group. Secondly, Russia feels that the Quad may prove a threat to Russia in the Indo-Pacific region as well. America and Russia are bitter opponents of each other. America is involved in Quad. Even though the quad is believed to be against China, yet Russia feels that the control of this group will be in the hands of the US. In this way, India will become part of the ‘Anti-Russia’ camp. The Russian fleet in the Indo-Pacific may pose a threat. Russia may be apprehensive about the security of its Russian fleet, but it does not appear that India will ever be ready to engage in the anti-Russia activity. The Quad is designed to deal solely with China. India sees the Quad as such but it never says openly. 

However, the Quad Group’s proposal was first proposed by Prime Minister of Japan Shinzo Abe in 2007, supported by India, the US, and Australia. At that time, when China started showing its dominance in the South China Sea, it started worrying everyone that China would start doing its own free will by following the rules of the world. India, Japan, Australia are traded by this route. There was no aggressive attitude at that time. Last year, representatives from these four countries met in New York. This year’s meeting was held in Tokyo. After which it has become a formal group. Russia feels that by joining the Quad Group, it has become formal that India and America have a strategic and military relationship. Quad may not be a military treaty. But there are some provisions of this group that partly look like military treaties. So Russia is worried about India being in the Quad. In fact, after the meeting of foreign ministers of the Quad countries in October, there has been a ‘Beca Agreement’ between India and America.

 BECA means Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA). Under this agreement, India and the United States will share state-of-the-art military technology, equipment, and geospatial maps with each other. After this agreement, US Defense Minister Mike Esper said, “Defense agreements between the two countries are based on our shared values and interests. We stand shoulder to shoulder to ensure that there is an open and independent Indo-Pacific region for all, especially in view of China's increasing aggression and destabilizing activities.” The basis for Russia's concern is also the Beca Agreement. Till now, America had done such military agreements with countries like Britain, Nato, Australia, and Israel only. After these countries, India is the first country with which the US has made such an agreement.

Is Russia Dictating India's Foreign Policy?

But due to the absence of an annual summit between Russia and India, many experts are asking questions on social media that Russia is not trying to dictate India’s foreign policy? Since the month of May last year, there has been a situation of tension between India and China on the Ladakh border. If the matter got worse, India’s Defence Minister Rajnath Singh met with the Defence Minister of China in Russia itself. Many experts believe that at the behest of India, Russia is playing the role of mediator between the tensions in the two countries. Even at the time of the Doklam dispute, Russia had played such a role. In such a situation, experts believe that it is unethical for India to be part of an ‘anti-China’ group when tensions are running along the Indo-China border and if Russia's mediation role continues. It is important to note that in the eyes of the world, the Quad may be a group of four like-minded countries. But it is being seen as an 'anti-China’ group.

Japan's Role after the Shinzo Abe era

The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, also known as QUAD, is an informal political dialogue group between the USA, India, Japan, and Australia. In 2007, Prime Minister of Japan Shinzo Abe proposed it for the first time, which was supported by India, the USA, and Australia. After this, they had a meeting this year. This series started in an informal way, not under any plan. When the tsunami came, the United States, India, and some other countries started relief work together, which had a positive effect. It felt that we can partner in many things which are not related to defence. But for the benefit of the people apart from this, when operations started against the pirates of Somalia, the United States, India, and some other countries also worked together. The results were also good. Then these countries started to think that we could work together. When China started showing its sovereignty over the South China Sea, everyone started worrying that by keeping the rules of the world, China would start doing its will. India, Japan, Australia are traded through this route. QUAD is not an aggressive attitude, it is a meeting of the views of some countries that the world should run with rules and laws. Quad started with a positive mindset. But after starting in 2007, the Quad remained inactive for the next 10 years. In the year 2017, once again the countries of the Quad met. The level of the meeting increased in 2019 and the foreign ministers of the four countries participated in it.

 Its slot is now ready and efforts are being made to add some more countries to it. Under this, the US took the initiative to talk to New Zealand, South Korea, and Vietnam on video conferencing. This group has been named Quad Plus. Connecting with other countries is also better for India, India has always been in favor of connecting and negotiating with other countries. But there is speculation whether Japan will retain the same commitment to ‘Quad’ even after Shinzo Abe leaves the post of Prime Minister. Will Japan's comprehensive strategy for China remain the same as it was during Shinzo Abe’s tenure ? Whether the number of countries participating in the Quad remains the same or increases; if the Multilateral United Front becomes effective against China, then Abe’s diplomatic legacy will become even more important. A section in Japan believes that Shinzo Abe is the first leader to implement his foreign policy with such a view on China. However, all eyes are now on Yoshihide Suga, who replaced Shinzo Abe. Suga took over as Prime Minister on 16 September 2020. Under his leadership, it seems difficult for Japan to pull out of the Quad, but it remains to be seen whether Suga also plays an active role in this alliance like Shinzo Abe’s.

Can this Alliance Compete with China?

In recent times, Chinese aggression has forced countries like Australia and India to seek a multilateral platform to keep pressure on the communist regime. However, the ability of the ‘Quad’ to compete with China will depend on whether all countries clearly agree on certain issues to take this alliance forward. However, India, Australia, and Japan have signed bilateral agreements with each other on defense and trade in recent times. But the situation should not be similar to 2008, for this the coalition needs to outline the scope of cooperation. 

Is this alliance an attempt to militarily come together against China or will other aspects like trade partnerships also be part of it? However, it would be a bit complicated to consider the business aspects of the relationship because all countries have extensive bilateral trade relations with China. It is being said that steps have also been taken to invite some ASEAN countries (which are involved in maritime disputes with China) to this alliance so that the group can be enlarged. Political observers say that the real litmus test of this alliance will happen only when it comes to knowing how much the member countries interfere in each other's bilateral disputes with China. In order to bring the countries involved in the coalition closer, it is necessary that the member countries forge strong ties among themselves. According to experts, bilateral agreements can play an important role in this direction.

China’s Aggressive Attempt to Break the Quad?

Many people are speculating that behind China’s aggressive attitude against India, there is an intention to break the Quad. This is false speculation, China is a big country and its attitude is not due to any one thing. It is a combination of many things. The biggest issue of this match is China’s ambition. China's ambition is taking it in a direction where competition and fighting become natural. China wants to be the superpower of the world, wants to beat America, all that is happening is part of the same chain.

Conclusion

It seems now that QUAD intends to counter Chinese threats in the region by the strategy of strong messaging, which may not be adequate without deterrence at the ground level. The apprehension is that China would try to derive a wedge among its partners with her past tactics of selective co-option. The members of QUAD should keep away their specific concerns to maintain unity in the forum. Before it happens, QUAD members should strengthen their unity and coordination. Thus, QUAD should move faster towards its core objective, rather than just confining to strong messaging. In spite of all these problems, the evolution of QUAD is the most significant strategic development of the 21st century, as it involves all the major powers of the world on either side. It has the potential to contain China, but it may also lead to greater confrontation with China.

India has been trying to never indicate to any country that it is a military alliance. India has been doing naval exercises in Malabar But now the situation has changed. China’s relations with many countries are not friendly, as things are changing, this stand of India can also change. The Quad was founded on the issue of peace. To think that a Quad is made for war is wrong. But if the interests of the Quod are hurt by China's action, a reaction can happen, but the situation of a military alliance is far away. America is aggressive in thinking, Japan and Australia are not as aggressive as before and India has always been a peace loving country; there is a lot of difference in the attitude of these countries, will they all be able to take the Quad forward or will it again remain as before. One common concern of all these countries is the increasing dominance of China. For some countries this problem is very big, for some it is not so big, but the concern is for everyone.